It’s time to stop looking at smartphones as the evolution of mobile phones. What we’re really seeing is the evolution of computers, from deskbound devices to pocket devices. In the middle, we have tablets, netbooks, ultrabooks and laptops. But the phone has a special place in our hearts – it keeps us in touch, it comes with us everywhere, it plays our music, it takes our happy snaps. And every day, it can do more and more to create the world around us. Photo and video editing apps are abundant, music creation apps are a dime a dozen, and dictation to speech is burgeoning. To those who say that true content creation will never come to phones, I say we’re only in year 5 of this revolution. Talk to me again in 10 years.
But there’s plenty of room to go. At the heart of it, the computer in your pocket is used for communications, and that means better speeds will be needed, both inside and outside the device; greater affordability, so we can talk to everyone; and maybe some cooling off with all the fragmentation. Android is currently spread across dozens of devices, all with different capabilities and screen sizes, which is a nightmare for developers. A little bit of a consolidation might be good here.
But what are the advancements we know about, and which ones affect you? Read on.
UNLIMITED PRICE PLANS
Importance - High
Likely Wait - Short
Cap plans aren't totallyevil. But there is a touch of mischief involved. By using the word Cap, there's a sense that you won't pay more. Of course, the "Cap" price is actually a floor price - the minimum you will pay, provided you don't go over a certain astronomical credit limit. And then the per-minute price is raised astronomically as well. This means lots of customers will be well within their limit, a few will meet their limit, and several will break their limit- and then pay a lot for every call over it, leading to a condition known as Bill Shock.
Cap plans are still wildly popular, as they're lucrative for the companies, and for some customers. They also attract the best mobile handset deals. But Vodafone were the first to respond to the anger over bill shock by offering Infinite plans, which offer all standard calls and text free of charge for one reasonable monthly fee. Expect the competition to jump onto this, and for plans to get simpler over time.
TRUE LTE/4G
Importance – Medium
Likely Wait – Short, but fitful
Long Term Evolution is a generic term to refer to mobile networks with similar reliability and speeds to fixed line connections, like ADSL or Cable. 4G is strictly speaking, a definition of high speeds. The two sometimes overlap, as with Telstra’s growing 4G network- which is very fast, but doesn’t have the same sort of steady, reliable nature as fixed connection. Improvements will be coming across all three networks, but in fits and starts.
TELSTRA 3G NETWORK WHOLESALE
Importance – Medium
Likely Wait – Short, but probably won’t be all that it’s cracked up to be
For the last few years, Mobile coverage has been a very hot topic and sore point for many. With so many people adopting smartphones and mobile broadband, the three networks (Telstra, Optus and Vodafone) have had to make massive upgrades to cope with the extra demand. Vodafone’s network suffered from a significant failure in late 2010, and is only recovering now. Optus has been wholesaling their network at a rapid rate, allowing companies like Virgin, Dodo and others to become MVNOs (Mobile Virtual Network Operators) to re-sell the Optus network.
This fragmentation has impacted the reliability of Optus’ network. Telstra has pushed an enormous amount of money and effort into their NextG network, which was already far superior to the competition, and then went further and have started building a 4G network, making them even more untouchable. It’s becoming a situation where Telstra is the only viable option for mobile and mobile broadband for many Australians. But many Australians also balk at Telstra’s higher prices.
Good news came in January 2012 that Telstra would quietly be opening up their NextG network to wholesale, letting other companies take advantage of their wider and faster network. The speeds on the network will likely be limited, but the coverage is the real exciting news here. While some mobile companies like Virgin might jump to Telstra as their network backbone, the big shift will probably come from internet service providers who bolt on mobile plans as a way to provide a full service telecommunications bundle. So expect firms like Internode, iiNet and TPG to start taking advantage of this.
BIG DATA PLANS ON MOBILE
Importance – Medium
Likely Wait – Long, maybe never?
Our expectations for data plans shift with the device we’re using. The least convenient connection is a fixed line connection – it’s only available in your house, you must live close to the telephone exchange, and you need a whole bunch of equipment to get it going. For that, we expect hundreds of gigabytes. For a mobile broadband connection, where we stick a tiny modem into a laptop and can connect anywhere a mobile connection is available, we expect about 10 gigabytes. And for a connection built into the SIM card we stick in a mobile, we expect 2 gigabytes. Surely in the end, data is data, and we should expect the same amount of data however we connect, right?
Some of this is by design. Mobile networks are having enough trouble as it is, maintaining their networks with all the USB dongles, Pocket WiFi, smartphones and tablets out there, not to mention the millions of actual telephone calls made every day. They limit the amount of bandwidth (ie. data available) to stop the network from being taxed further.
But there’s also a technological issue. Radio spectrum is expensive and simply incapable of carrying the same amount of data as a copper of optical fibre cable. Of course, most mobile towers are actually connected to their parent network by fibre optic cables, so it’s really only that last few hundred meters from the tower to your device that’s a problem, and that might be fixable with more towers. Or failing that, small repeaters fixed to every house, or something similar.
And not all radio is equal. Right now, mobile operators run their networks on slices of spectrum that are available, with the low numbers (like the 850MHz band used by Telstra’s Next G, and the 900MHz band used by Vodafone and Optus) being good with distance. Higher bands (like Telstra’s 1800MHz 4G network) are good with speed. But the gold standard is the 700MHz band, which is hugely powerful, travelling long distances and carrying a lot of data on it. This slice has been used in the past for analogue TV, and with the national conversion to digital TV, that frees up this slice. An auction is coming up soon, with all three networks expected to participate, and with enough spectrum left over for a possible fourth bidder. The current speculation is that Google will be that fourth bidder, which is a very exciting prospect for everyone. Google likes to give away services for free in exchange for advertisements, your private information and/or your soul; for a lot of people, that’s a decent trade off for high speed mobile network that offers big data plans.
ONE MOBILE TO RULE THEM ALL
Importance – Low
Likely Wait – Never! Chaos Reigns!
Before 2007, the mobile market was a huge plastic mess. Then the iPhone came along, and turned the market on its head. The massive upheaval has lead to smartphones becoming a majority of the market in Australia (65% and rapidly rising). Really, smartphones are the next stage of computers, rather than an evolution of the mobile phone. But thanks to Android, a free and open source mobile phone operating system offered by Google, we’re kinda back where we were pre-iPhone – a huge plastic (and aluminium) mess. Every phone looks the same, and companies like HTC and Samsung release a new model every month, with only tiny improvements or differences from their forebears. This confusing morass is good for innovation and keeping prices low, and bad for the amount of confusion, frustration, ennui and landfill it brings.
Windows Phone will enter the fray any day now, especially with the release of the Nokia Lumia, the first line of super-designed Windows Phones to come out of the partnership the two giants have created to take on Apple. For Google, their ally in the mobile wars is largely Samsung, and the bundle of patents it inherited in their purchase of Motorola’s mobile division. For BlackBerry, their biggest weapon is…um…well, the Canadian armed forces?
Will one phone emerge as a clear and reliable choice? Yep. It’s still the iPhone. Sure, it doesn’t have as many features as some Samsung phones, and it’s locked down pretty tight for people who like to tinker and play around with their devices, but it sticks to Apple’s mantra – it just works. And it’s backed up by the largest app store. The Android Market will eventually get bigger, but it’s also open enough to encourage the makers of junky software that entices users with promises of girls, free wallpapers and other questionably worthwhile stuff, and then loads phones with viruses, ads and other bits of unwanted software.
But the mobile wars will continue for a while, with no real clear winner. The only thing that can slow it down? People need to stop buying a new phone every 12 months. That’s not gonna happen any time soon.
Remember to keep tuned to Compare Mobile Plans for more news on new phones, technologies and offers, or call us on 1300 211 325 for more info